The Closed Window
Five years without an IPO in Brazil, the exit offerings, and the outlook for 2027 to 2031
The thesis
Between 2022 and 2025 no company went public on the Brazilian stock exchange, and the only one in 2026 was entirely secondary. We project the following five years under three interest rate paths, and in none of them does the market return to 2021 levels
What the study establishes
1
Forty-seven listings against sixty-four delistings in six years, and the delisting count only begins in 2024
2
In 2006 and 2007 the average Selic rate was 13.48% and there were ninety IPOs, which undermines the simple interest-rate thesis
3
In the 2027 to 2031 projection, the number of listed companies ranges from 275 to 364, against 463 at the 2021 peak
Contents
- Four years, no IPOs
- The vintage that broke confidence
- The causes
- The cause almost no one mentions
- The reopening and what it revealed
- The technical anatomy
- Liquidity
- What the issuer paid for waiting
- The controlling shareholder's decision
- The cases the decade left behind
- The exit offers
- The long cycle
- The market or the companies
- Is it Brazilian or global
- The counter-argument
- What each scenario delivers
- The gaps
- What to do with it
- The next five years